Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Macara to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMacara to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceMacara or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.37
Macara vs Emelec preview and prediction
The match
Emelec travel to Estadio Bellavista in the Liga Pro on Sunday 13 September (21:30 WAT) to face Macara. Macara are 2nd with 67 points from 36 games, while Emelec sit 10th on 45 points. A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Macara's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Independiente del Valle 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Emelec's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Manta FC 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Emelec arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 May 2026, finished Emelec 2–0 Macara.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.5 for Macara and 0.8 for Emelec. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Macara 56%, draw 24%, Emelec 20%.
Safer route: Macara or draw (80%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Macara to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Macara or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Macara 1–0 Emelec. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Macara56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.90
Emelec20%fair 5.04 · @3.60
2.26Expected goals
1.51Macara xG
0.75Emelec xG
50%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Macara 1.5 – 0.8 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Macara or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Macara vs Emelec?
On our numbers Macara have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Emelec 20%.
How many goals will there be in Macara vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Macara vs Emelec?
Our predicted score is Macara 1–0 Emelec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Macara vs Emelec?
Macara vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Bellavista.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
