Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓83% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.69
Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle preview and prediction
The match
Leones del Norte host Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. Leones del Norte are 9th with 47 points from 36 games, while Independiente del Valle sit 1st on 84 points. A gap of 37 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Leones del Norte's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Manta FC 2–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Deportes Tolima 1–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Leones del Norte and 1.8 for Independiente del Valle. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones del Norte 17%, draw 20%, Independiente del Valle 62%.
Safer route: Independiente del Valle or draw (83%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.90.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Leones del Norte 0–2 Independiente del Valle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones del Norte17%fair 5.80 · @5.30
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.65
Independiente del Valle62%fair 1.60 · @1.65
2.64Expected goals
0.81Leones del Norte xG
1.83Independiente del Valle xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 0.8 – 1.8 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
62%
1.60
1.65
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.28
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.69
–
Form
Leones del Norte – last 6
WLDLWD
15 Aug
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
8 Aug
@ Aucas
0–3
L
3 Aug
vs Barcelona SC
1–1
D
30 Jul
@ LDU de Quito
0–6
L
26 Jul
@ Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Jul
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWWWW
19 Aug
@ Deportes Tolima
1–0
W
15 Aug
vs Delfin SC
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ LDU de Quito
2–0
W
2 Aug
vs Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
30 Jul
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ Orense SC
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Independiente del Valle 62%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 0–2 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
