Libertad vs Universidad Catolica prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Universidad Catolica or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Universidad Catolica to win @ 1.90 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUniversidad Catolica to win ✗65% · @1.90
Double chanceUniversidad Catolica or draw ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.56
Libertad vs Universidad Catolica preview and prediction
The match
Universidad Catolica travel to Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in the Liga Pro on Monday 10 August (22:30 WAT) to face Libertad. Libertad are 7th with 51 points from 36 games, while Universidad Catolica sit 3rd on 54 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Libertad's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Orense SC 3–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Universidad Catolica's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Cuniburo 2–3 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for Libertad and 1.8 for Universidad Catolica. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Libertad 15%, draw 20%, Universidad Catolica 65%.
Safer route: Universidad Catolica or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Universidad Catolica to win at 1.90 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Universidad Catolica or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Libertad 0–1 Universidad Catolica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad15%fair 6.63 · @4.00
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.40
Universidad Catolica65%fair 1.55 · @1.90
2.45Expected goals
0.68Libertad xG
1.77Universidad Catolica xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%
From our goals model: Libertad 0.7 – 1.8 Universidad Catolica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universidad Catolica to win✗
65%
1.55
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Universidad Catolica or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Universidad Catolica ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universidad Catolica / FT Universidad Catolica✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.56
–
Form
Libertad – last 6
WWWLWD
1 Aug
vs Orense SC
3–0
W
27 Jul
@ Mushuc Runa SC
2–0
W
21 Jul
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
19 Jul
@ Barcelona SC
0–1
L
15 Jul
vs Tecnico Universitario
1–0
W
12 Jul
@ LDU de Quito
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Universidad Catolica – last 6
LWDWWW
5 Aug
vs Cuniburo
2–3
L
1 Aug
vs Tecnico Universitario
5–0
W
27 Jul
@ Guayaquil City FC
0–0
D
22 Jul
vs Barcelona SC
2–1
W
18 Jul
@ Deportivo Cuenca
2–0
W
15 Jul
vs LDU de Quito
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad and Universidad Catolica.
What is the prediction for Libertad vs Universidad Catolica?
Our pick is Universidad Catolica or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Libertad vs Universidad Catolica?
On our numbers Libertad have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Universidad Catolica 65%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Universidad Catolica?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Universidad Catolica?
Our predicted score is Libertad 0–1 Universidad Catolica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Universidad Catolica?
Libertad vs Universidad Catolica (Liga Pro) kicks off on Monday 10 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
