Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Aucas to win @ 1.73 – our chance 61% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAucas to win ✓61% · @1.73
Double chanceAucas or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.95
Aucas vs Leones del Norte preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Aucas take on Leones del Norte on Saturday 8 August, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda. Aucas are 5th with 54 points from 36 games, while Leones del Norte sit 9th on 47 points.
Form guide
Aucas's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Emelec 2–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leones del Norte's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Barcelona SC 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 April 2026, finished Leones del Norte 0–1 Aucas.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Aucas and 0.7 for Leones del Norte. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aucas 61%, draw 22%, Leones del Norte 16%.
Safer route: Aucas or draw (84%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Aucas to win at 1.73 – 61% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Aucas 1–0 Leones del Norte. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aucas61%fair 1.63 · @1.73
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.45
Leones del Norte16%fair 6.09 · @5.00
2.25Expected goals
1.60Aucas xG
0.65Leones del Norte xG
49%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Aucas 1.6 – 0.7 Leones del Norte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Aucas vs Leones del Norte?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Aucas vs Leones del Norte?
On our numbers Aucas have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leones del Norte 16%.
How many goals will there be in Aucas vs Leones del Norte?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aucas vs Leones del Norte?
Our predicted score is Aucas 1–0 Leones del Norte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Aucas vs Leones del Norte?
Aucas vs Leones del Norte (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
