Value bet: Libertad to win @ 2.74 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLibertad to win ✓42% · @2.74
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.13
Libertad vs Orense SC preview and prediction
The match
Libertad host Orense SC in the Liga Pro on Saturday 1 August, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. Libertad are 7th with 51 points from 36 games, while Orense SC sit 13th on 39 points. A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Libertad's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Mushuc Runa SC 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Orense SC's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Independiente del Valle 2–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Libertad arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 April 2026, finished Orense SC 2–1 Libertad.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Libertad and 1.2 for Orense SC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Libertad to win at 2.74 – 42% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Libertad 1–1 Orense SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad42%fair 2.40 · @2.74
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.35
Orense SC35%fair 2.90 · @2.46
2.49Expected goals
1.32Libertad xG
1.17Orense SC xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.3 – 1.2 Orense SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Libertad vs Orense SC?
On our numbers Libertad have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Orense SC 35%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Orense SC?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Orense SC?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–1 Orense SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Orense SC?
Libertad vs Orense SC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
