Value bet: Universidad Catolica to win @ 1.90 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUniversidad Catolica to win ✓59% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.76
Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC preview and prediction
The match
Universidad Catolica host Barcelona SC in the Liga Pro on Wednesday 22 July, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Olimpico Atahualpa. Universidad Catolica are 3rd with 54 points from 36 games, while Barcelona SC sit 6th on 49 points.
Form guide
Universidad Catolica's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Deportivo Cuenca 2–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Barcelona SC's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Libertad 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Universidad Catolica and 0.8 for Barcelona SC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Universidad Catolica 59%, draw 20%, Barcelona SC 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Universidad Catolica to win at 1.90 – 59% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Universidad Catolica 1–0 Barcelona SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Universidad Catolica59%fair 1.70 · @1.90
Draw20%fair 5.07 · @3.40
Barcelona SC21%fair 4.70 · @4.00
2.37Expected goals
1.58Universidad Catolica xG
0.79Barcelona SC xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Universidad Catolica 1.6 – 0.8 Barcelona SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universidad Catolica to win✓
59%
1.70
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universidad Catolica / FT Universidad Catolica✓
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.76
–
Form
Universidad Catolica – last 6
WWLLLW
18 Jul
@ Deportivo Cuenca
2–0
W
15 Jul
vs LDU de Quito
1–0
W
10 Jul
@ Leones del Norte
0–1
L
6 Jul
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–3
L
1 Jun
@ Emelec
0–1
L
29 May
@ El Nacional
4–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Barcelona SC – last 6
WDDWLL
19 Jul
vs Libertad
1–0
W
16 Jul
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–1
D
13 Jul
@ Emelec
0–0
D
5 Jul
vs Deportivo Cuenca
2–0
W
2 Jun
@ Tecnico Universitario
0–1
L
29 May
@ Cruzeiro
0–4
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Universidad Catolica and Barcelona SC.
What is the prediction for Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC?
On our numbers Universidad Catolica have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Barcelona SC 21%.
How many goals will there be in Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC?
Our predicted score is Universidad Catolica 1–0 Barcelona SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC?
Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Olimpico Atahualpa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
