Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 53% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeones del Norte to win ✗55% · @1.80
Double chanceLeones del Norte or draw ✓79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.21
Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Leones del Norte take on Guayaquil City FC on Thursday 23 July, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. Leones del Norte are 9th with 47 points from 36 games, while Guayaquil City FC sit 8th on 48 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leones del Norte's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat LDU de Quito 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Guayaquil City FC's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Manta FC 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Leones del Norte arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 March 2026, finished Guayaquil City FC 0–0 Leones del Norte.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.4 for Leones del Norte and 0.9 for Guayaquil City FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 53%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones del Norte 55%, draw 24%, Guayaquil City FC 21%.
Safer route: Leones del Norte or draw (79%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 53% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Leones del Norte 1–1 Guayaquil City FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones del Norte55%fair 1.83 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.25
Guayaquil City FC21%fair 4.76 · @4.80
2.29Expected goals
1.37Leones del Norte xG
0.92Guayaquil City FC xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
2–09%
0–19%
2–19%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.4 – 0.9 Guayaquil City FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Guayaquil City FC 21%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–1 Guayaquil City FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC?
Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
