Libertad vs Leones del Norte prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLibertad to win ✗41% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.09
Libertad vs Leones del Norte preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Libertad take on Leones del Norte on Saturday 4 July, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. Libertad are 7th with 51 points from 36 games, while Leones del Norte sit 9th on 47 points.
Form guide
Libertad's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Manta FC 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Leones del Norte's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Macara 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Leones del Norte arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Libertad and 1.1 for Leones del Norte. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Libertad 41%, draw 24%, Leones del Norte 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.90.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Libertad 1–1 Leones del Norte. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad41%fair 2.41 · @2.34
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
Leones del Norte34%fair 2.92 · @3.05
2.29Expected goals
1.22Libertad xG
1.07Leones del Norte xG
55%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.2 – 1.1 Leones del Norte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Libertad to win✗
41%
2.41
2.34
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.80
1.90 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Libertad / FT Libertad✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.09
–
Form
Libertad – last 6
LWLWLL
30 May
@ Manta FC
1–2
L
23 May
@ Independiente del Valle
3–2
W
16 May
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 May
vs Aucas
3–2
W
21 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Leones del Norte – last 6
DWLWLW
1 Jun
vs Macara
1–1
D
30 May
@ Huaquillas
1–0
W
24 May
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
17 May
vs Mushuc Runa SC
3–1
W
9 May
@ Orense SC
0–2
L
3 May
vs Emelec
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad and Leones del Norte.
What is the prediction for Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
On our numbers Libertad have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Leones del Norte 34%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–1 Leones del Norte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
Libertad vs Leones del Norte (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
