Macara vs Independiente del Valle prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 2.40 – our chance 46% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win46% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.52
Macara vs Independiente del Valle preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Macara take on Independiente del Valle on Saturday 16 May, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Bellavista. Macara are 2nd with 67 points from 36 games, while Independiente del Valle sit 1st on 84 points. A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Macara's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Manta FC 1–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Universidad Catolica 3–0 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.0 for Macara and 1.3 for Independiente del Valle. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Macara 31%, draw 22%, Independiente del Valle 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Independiente del Valle to win at 2.40 – 46% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Macara 1–1 Independiente del Valle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Macara31%fair 3.20 · @2.95
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Independiente del Valle46%fair 2.16 · @2.40
2.39Expected goals
1.04Macara xG
1.35Independiente del Valle xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Macara 1.0 – 1.3 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win
46%
2.16
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.52
–
Form
Macara – last 6
WDWLWW
11 May
@ Manta FC
1–0
W
7 May
vs Tigre
2–2
D
1 May
@ Alianza Atletico
2–0
W
24 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
0–4
L
20 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
3–1
W
16 Apr
@ Tigre
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWLWWW
13 May
@ Universidad Catolica
3–0
W
10 May
vs Barcelona SC
1–0
W
6 May
@ UCV
0–2
L
1 May
@ Universidad Catolica
3–2
W
28 Apr
@ Libertad Asuncion
3–2
W
22 Apr
@ Delfin SC
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Macara and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Macara have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Independiente del Valle 46%.
How many goals will there be in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Macara 1–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Macara vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Bellavista.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
