Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Leones del Norte to win @ 2.78 – our chance 38% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeones del Norte to win ✓38% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.13
Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC preview and prediction
The match
Leones del Norte host Mushuc Runa SC in the Liga Pro on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. Leones del Norte are 9th with 47 points from 36 games, while Mushuc Runa SC sit 12th on 43 points.
Form guide
Leones del Norte's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Orense SC 0–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mushuc Runa SC's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to LDU de Quito 1–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Leones del Norte arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Leones del Norte and 1.1 for Mushuc Runa SC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones del Norte 38%, draw 25%, Mushuc Runa SC 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Leones del Norte to win at 2.78 – 38% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Leones del Norte 1–1 Mushuc Runa SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones del Norte38%fair 2.60 · @2.78
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.05
Mushuc Runa SC36%fair 2.76 · @2.60
2.22Expected goals
1.13Leones del Norte xG
1.09Mushuc Runa SC xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.1 – 1.1 Mushuc Runa SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones del Norte to win✓
38%
2.60
2.78 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones del Norte / FT Leones del Norte✓
21%
4.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.13
–
Form
Leones del Norte – last 6
LWWLLW
9 May
@ Orense SC
0–2
L
3 May
vs Emelec
2–0
W
22 Apr
vs Manta FC
3–0
W
17 Apr
vs Aucas
0–1
L
11 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mushuc Runa SC – last 6
LLDWLD
12 May
vs LDU de Quito
1–3
L
23 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Libertad
2–2
D
23 Mar
vs Emelec
2–0
W
19 Mar
@ Orense SC
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Macara
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Mushuc Runa SC.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mushuc Runa SC 36%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–1 Mushuc Runa SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
