Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Emelec to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultEmelec to win61% · @1.80
Double chanceEmelec or draw87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–017% · fair 5.86
Emelec vs Libertad preview and prediction
The match
Emelec host Libertad in the Liga Pro on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 21:30 (WAT) at Estadio George Capwell. Emelec are 10th with 45 points from 36 games, while Libertad sit 7th on 51 points.
Form guide
Emelec's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Leones del Norte 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Libertad's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Aucas 3–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Emelec and 0.6 for Libertad. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Emelec 61%, draw 26%, Libertad 13%.
Safer route: Emelec or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Emelec to win at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Emelec or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Emelec 1–0 Libertad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Emelec61%fair 1.63 · @1.80
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.45
Libertad13%fair 7.69 · @4.40
2.26Expected goals
1.64Emelec xG
0.62Libertad xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Emelec 1.6 – 0.6 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Emelec to win
61%
1.63
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Emelec or draw
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
50%
1.99
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.70
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.26
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Emelec / FT Emelec
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
17%
5.86
–
Form
Emelec – last 6
LWWLLD
3 May
@ Leones del Norte
0–2
L
25 Apr
vs LDU de Quito
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–0
W
18 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–3
L
13 Apr
@ Aucas
0–2
L
9 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Libertad – last 6
WLLDDL
2 May
vs Aucas
3–2
W
21 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Emelec and Libertad.
Our pick is Emelec or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Emelec vs Libertad?
On our numbers Emelec have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Libertad 13%.
How many goals will there be in Emelec vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Emelec vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Emelec 1–0 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Emelec vs Libertad?
Emelec vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio George Capwell.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
