Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
1
Value bet: Leones del Norte to win @ 2.44 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeones del Norte to win ✓44% · @2.44
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.95
Leones del Norte vs Emelec preview and prediction
The match
Emelec travel to Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in the Liga Pro on Sunday 3 May (23:00 WAT) to face Leones del Norte. Leones del Norte are 9th with 47 points from 36 games, while Emelec sit 10th on 45 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leones del Norte's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Manta FC 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Emelec's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat LDU de Quito 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Leones del Norte and 0.9 for Emelec. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones del Norte 44%, draw 23%, Emelec 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Leones del Norte to win at 2.44 – 44% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Leones del Norte 1–0 Emelec. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones del Norte44%fair 2.29 · @2.44
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.05
Emelec33%fair 3.03 · @2.98
2.07Expected goals
1.14Leones del Norte xG
0.93Emelec xG
51%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–013%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.1 – 0.9 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones del Norte to win✓
44%
2.29
2.44 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones del Norte / FT Leones del Norte✓
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.95
–
Form
Leones del Norte – last 6
WLLWDL
22 Apr
vs Manta FC
3–0
W
17 Apr
vs Aucas
0–1
L
11 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Mar
@ Guayaquil City FC
0–0
D
18 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Emelec – last 6
WWLLDL
25 Apr
vs LDU de Quito
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–0
W
18 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–3
L
13 Apr
@ Aucas
0–2
L
9 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Emelec.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Emelec 33%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–0 Emelec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Leones del Norte vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
