Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito prediction & analysis
87%
Footrivo pick
Independiente del Valle or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 1.90 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win63% · @1.90
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–014% · fair 7.10
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Independiente del Valle take on LDU de Quito on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 21:30 (WAT) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil. Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84 points from 35 games, while LDU de Quito sit 4th on 54 points. A gap of 30 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat UCV 3–1 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
LDU de Quito's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Mirassol 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Independiente del Valle and 0.7 for LDU de Quito. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente del Valle 63%, draw 25%, LDU de Quito 13%.
Safer route: Independiente del Valle or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Independiente del Valle to win at 1.90 – 63% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Independiente del Valle or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Independiente del Valle 1–0 LDU de Quito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente del Valle63%fair 1.59 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.45
LDU de Quito13%fair 7.86 · @3.95
2.57Expected goals
1.85Independiente del Valle xG
0.73LDU de Quito xG
54%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 1.8 – 0.7 LDU de Quito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win
63%
1.59
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.38
1.33
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
14%
7.10
–
Form
Independiente del Valle – last 5
WDLWW
16 Apr
vs UCV
3–1
W
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
LDU de Quito – last 6
WLWLWW
15 Apr
vs Mirassol
2–0
W
11 Apr
@ Delfin SC
0–1
L
8 Apr
@ Always Ready
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Leones del Norte
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
Our pick is Independiente del Valle or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and LDU de Quito 13%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 1–0 LDU de Quito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
