Value bet: Leones del Norte to win @ 3.80 – our chance 29% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuayaquil City FC to win ✗48% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.49
Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Guayaquil City FC take on Leones del Norte on Monday 23 March, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt. Guayaquil City FC are 8th with 48 points from 36 games, while Leones del Norte sit 9th on 47 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Guayaquil City FC's last 4: WDLL Most recently they beat Manta FC 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leones del Norte's last 3: LDD Most recently they lost to LDU de Quito 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.1 for Guayaquil City FC and 0.7 for Leones del Norte. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Guayaquil City FC 48%, draw 24%, Leones del Norte 29%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Leones del Norte to win at 3.80 – 29% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Guayaquil City FC 1–0 Leones del Norte. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guayaquil City FC48%fair 2.10 · @2.12
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @2.96
Leones del Norte29%fair 3.50 · @3.80
1.75Expected goals
1.05Guayaquil City FC xG
0.70Leones del Norte xG
49%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
0–017%
1–113%
0–112%
2–010%
2–17%
From our goals model: Guayaquil City FC 1.1 – 0.7 Leones del Norte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guayaquil City FC to win✗
48%
2.10
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.49
–
Form
Guayaquil City FC – last 4
WDLL
18 Mar
@ Manta FC
1–0
W
16 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
7 Mar
@ Delfin SC
0–1
L
23 Feb
@ Independiente del Valle
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Leones del Norte – last 3
LDD
18 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
0–2
L
14 Mar
@ Deportivo Cuenca
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Macara
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guayaquil City FC and Leones del Norte.
What is the prediction for Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte?
On our numbers Guayaquil City FC have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Leones del Norte 29%.
How many goals will there be in Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte?
Our predicted score is Guayaquil City FC 1–0 Leones del Norte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte?
Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte (Liga Pro) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
