Value bet: Aluminium Arak to win @ 2.55 – our chance 45% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAluminium Arak to win ✗45% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.39
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.37
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.95
Aluminium Arak vs Paykan preview and prediction
The match
Aluminium Arak host Paykan in the Persian Gulf Pro League on Friday 20 February, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT) at Imam Khomeini. Aluminium Arak are 6th with 17 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Paykan sit 11th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Aluminium Arak and 0.8 for Paykan. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Aluminium Arak to win at 2.55 – 45% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.37. Predicted score: Aluminium Arak 1–0 Paykan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aluminium Arak45%fair 2.24 · @2.55
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @2.80
Paykan31%fair 3.19 · @2.85
1.81Expected goals
1.03Aluminium Arak xG
0.78Paykan xG
47%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
0–016%
1–113%
0–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Aluminium Arak 1.0 – 0.8 Paykan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aluminium Arak to win✗
45%
2.24
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.39 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.60
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.37
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.95
–
Form
Aluminium Arak – last 1
D
13 Feb
@ Shams Azar Qazvin
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Paykan – last 1
L
14 Feb
vs Mes Rafsanjan
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aluminium Arak and Paykan.
What is the prediction for Aluminium Arak vs Paykan?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.37.
Who will win Aluminium Arak vs Paykan?
On our numbers Aluminium Arak have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Paykan 31%.
How many goals will there be in Aluminium Arak vs Paykan?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aluminium Arak vs Paykan?
Our predicted score is Aluminium Arak 1–0 Paykan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Aluminium Arak vs Paykan?
Aluminium Arak vs Paykan (Persian Gulf Pro League) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Imam Khomeini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
