Value bet: Shams Azar Qazvin to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFajr Sepasi to win ✓39% · @2.37
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.39
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.52
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.87
Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin preview and prediction
The match
The Persian Gulf Pro League sees Fajr Sepasi take on Shams Azar Qazvin on Friday 20 February, kicking off at 16:15 (WAT). Fajr Sepasi are 7th with 17 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Shams Azar Qazvin sit 17th on 7 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Fajr Sepasi and 0.9 for Shams Azar Qazvin. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Shams Azar Qazvin to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fajr Sepasi39%fair 2.56 · @2.37
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @2.85
Shams Azar Qazvin35%fair 2.86 · @3.10
1.93Expected goals
1.00Fajr Sepasi xG
0.93Shams Azar Qazvin xG
50%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–015%
1–113%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Fajr Sepasi 1.0 – 0.9 Shams Azar Qazvin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fajr Sepasi to win✓
39%
2.56
2.37
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.39
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
1.52
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.87
–
Form
Fajr Sepasi – last 1
L
13 Feb
@ Esteghlal Khuzestan
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Shams Azar Qazvin – last 1
D
13 Feb
vs Aluminium Arak
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fajr Sepasi and Shams Azar Qazvin.
What is the prediction for Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
On our numbers Fajr Sepasi have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Shams Azar Qazvin 35%.
How many goals will there be in Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Our predicted score is Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin (Persian Gulf Pro League) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
