Mombasa Elite vs Migori Youth prediction & analysis
61%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
2
Value bet: Migori Youth to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMombasa Elite to win ✗47% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.15
Mombasa Elite vs Migori Youth preview and prediction
The match
Mombasa Elite host Migori Youth in the Super League on Sunday 3 May, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Mombasa Elite's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Soy United 1–0 at home. At home they have won 5 and lost 0 of their last 5. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Migori Youth's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Nzoia Sugar 4–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.3 for Mombasa Elite and 0.9 for Migori Youth. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Migori Youth to win at 3.50 – 31% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 61% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Mombasa Elite 1–0 Migori Youth. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mombasa Elite47%fair 2.13 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.10
Migori Youth31%fair 3.24 · @3.50
2.20Expected goals
1.26Mombasa Elite xG
0.94Migori Youth xG
42%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Mombasa Elite 1.3 – 0.9 Migori Youth expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mombasa Elite to win✗
47%
2.13
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mombasa Elite / FT Mombasa Elite✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.15
–
Form
Mombasa Elite – last 6
WLWWWW
19 Apr
vs Soy United
1–0
W
11 Apr
@ Kibera Black Stars
0–2
L
3 Apr
vs Vihiga United FC
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs MCF
3–1
W
15 Mar
vs Kabati Youth FC
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs MOFA
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Migori Youth – last 6
WWWLWW
26 Apr
vs Nzoia Sugar
4–0
W
12 Apr
vs Naivas
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Luanda Villa
3–0
W
28 Mar
@ Mwatate United
0–1
L
23 Mar
vs Talanta
3–1
W
15 Mar
vs Soy United
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mombasa Elite and Migori Youth.
What is the prediction for Mombasa Elite vs Migori Youth?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Mombasa Elite vs Migori Youth?
On our numbers Mombasa Elite have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Migori Youth 31%.
How many goals will there be in Mombasa Elite vs Migori Youth?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mombasa Elite vs Migori Youth?
Our predicted score is Mombasa Elite 1–0 Migori Youth, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mombasa Elite vs Migori Youth?
Mombasa Elite vs Migori Youth (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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