Value bet: Thanh Hóa to win @ 2.80 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultThanh Hóa to win ✗39% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.58
Thanh Hóa vs Song Lam Nghe An preview and prediction
The match
The V.League 1 sees Thanh Hóa take on Song Lam Nghe An on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Thanh Hóa are 11th with 25 points from 26 games (in the bottom half), while Song Lam Nghe An sit 9th on 27 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Thanh Hóa's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Viettel 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Song Lam Nghe An's last 4: DLWW Most recently they drew with Viettel 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Song Lam Nghe An arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Thanh Hóa and 1.2 for Song Lam Nghe An. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Thanh Hóa 39%, draw 24%, Song Lam Nghe An 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Thanh Hóa to win at 2.80 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Thanh Hóa 1–1 Song Lam Nghe An. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Thanh Hóa39%fair 2.55 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Song Lam Nghe An36%fair 2.74 · @2.38
2.51Expected goals
1.28Thanh Hóa xG
1.23Song Lam Nghe An xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Thanh Hóa 1.3 – 1.2 Song Lam Nghe An expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Thanh Hóa to win✗
39%
2.55
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Thanh Hóa / FT Thanh Hóa✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.58
–
Form
Thanh Hóa – last 6
LWLLDL
10 Apr
@ Viettel
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs Ho Chi Minh
4–0
W
13 Mar
@ Nam Dinh
0–1
L
6 Mar
vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Hai Phong
3–3
D
24 Feb
vs Công An Nhân Dân
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Song Lam Nghe An – last 4
DLWW
5 Apr
vs Viettel
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Ha Noi
0–3
L
7 Mar
vs Hai Phong
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Thanh Hóa and Song Lam Nghe An.
What is the prediction for Thanh Hóa vs Song Lam Nghe An?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Thanh Hóa vs Song Lam Nghe An?
On our numbers Thanh Hóa have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Song Lam Nghe An 36%.
How many goals will there be in Thanh Hóa vs Song Lam Nghe An?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Thanh Hóa vs Song Lam Nghe An?
Our predicted score is Thanh Hóa 1–1 Song Lam Nghe An, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Thanh Hóa vs Song Lam Nghe An?
Thanh Hóa vs Song Lam Nghe An (V.League 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
