Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: TPV to win @ 1.75 – our chance 66% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTPV to win ✓66% · @1.75
Double chanceTPV or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.36
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.47
KPV-j vs TPV preview and prediction
The match
KPV-j host TPV in the Ykkönen on Saturday 11 July, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Kokkolan keskuskentta. KPV-j are 11th with 19 points from 27 games (in the bottom three), while TPV sit 10th on 30 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
KPV-j's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat FC jazz 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.8 conceded.
TPV's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat JJK 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.1 for KPV-j and 2.4 for TPV. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: KPV-j 15%, draw 19%, TPV 66%.
Safer route: TPV or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.36.
Value angle: TPV to win at 1.75 – 66% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was TPV or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: KPV-j 1–2 TPV. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
KPV-j15%fair 6.79 · @3.75
Draw19%fair 5.21 · @3.70
TPV66%fair 1.51 · @1.75
3.50Expected goals
1.08KPV-j xG
2.42TPV xG
68%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
0–29%
1–18%
1–38%
0–17%
0–37%
From our goals model: KPV-j 1.1 – 2.4 TPV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
TPV to win✓
66%
1.51
1.75 ▲
Double chance
TPV or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.48
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
TPV ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT TPV / FT TPV✓
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.47
–
Form
KPV-j – last 6
WLLLWL
2 Jul
@ FC jazz
1–0
W
28 Jun
vs PKKU
1–3
L
13 Jun
vs JJK
2–3
L
5 Jun
@ KuPS Akatemia
1–4
L
29 May
vs Inter Turku II
4–2
W
23 May
@ VJS
0–5
L
1.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
TPV – last 6
WLDDLL
5 Jul
vs JJK
1–0
W
29 Jun
@ VJS
1–2
L
14 Jun
@ PKKU
2–2
D
6 Jun
vs Inter Turku II
1–1
D
29 May
vs Tampere United
0–3
L
23 May
@ SalPa
2–4
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between KPV-j and TPV.
Our pick is TPV or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win KPV-j vs TPV?
On our numbers KPV-j have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 19% and TPV 66%.
How many goals will there be in KPV-j vs TPV?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for KPV-j vs TPV?
Our predicted score is KPV-j 1–2 TPV, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is KPV-j vs TPV?
KPV-j vs TPV (Ykkönen) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Kokkolan keskuskentta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
