Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSalPa to win ✓65% · @1.44
Double chanceSalPa or draw ✓88% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.29
SalPa vs TPV preview and prediction
The match
The Ykkönen sees SalPa take on TPV on Saturday 23 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Salon urheilupuisto. SalPa are 3rd with 48 points from 27 games (in the top four), while TPV sit 10th on 30 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
SalPa's last 4: LLWD Most recently they lost to PKKU 0–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
TPV's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to Rops 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game.
SalPa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for SalPa and 0.8 for TPV. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: SalPa 65%, draw 23%, TPV 12%.
Safer route: SalPa or draw (88%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was SalPa to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: SalPa 2–0 TPV. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
SalPa65%fair 1.54 · @1.44
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @4.20
TPV12%fair 8.14 · @5.00
2.86Expected goals
2.05SalPa xG
0.81TPV xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: SalPa 2.1 – 0.8 TPV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SalPa to win✓
65%
1.54
1.44
Double chance
SalPa or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
SalPa ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SalPa / FT SalPa✓
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.29
–
Form
SalPa – last 4
LLWD
2 May
@ PKKU
0–2
L
24 Apr
vs Inter Turku II
2–3
L
14 Apr
@ Fish United
4–0
W
4 Apr
vs Rops
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
TPV – last 4
LLLL
9 May
@ Rops
0–1
L
24 Apr
@ KuPS Akatemia
0–3
L
15 Apr
vs Tampere United
0–2
L
28 Mar
@ JäPS
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SalPa and TPV.
Our pick is SalPa to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win SalPa vs TPV?
On our numbers SalPa have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and TPV 12%.
How many goals will there be in SalPa vs TPV?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SalPa vs TPV?
Our predicted score is SalPa 2–0 TPV, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is SalPa vs TPV?
SalPa vs TPV (Ykkönen) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Salon urheilupuisto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
