Value bet: Shonan Bellmare to win @ 1.62 – our chance 67% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultShonan Bellmare to win ✗67% · @1.62
Double chanceShonan Bellmare or draw ✓86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.65
Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi SC preview and prediction
The match
The J2 League sees Shonan Bellmare take on Tochigi SC on Saturday 4 April, kicking off at 06:00 (WAT) at Lemon Gas Stadium.
Form guide
Shonan Bellmare's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Yokohama FC 3–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tochigi SC's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Thespakusatsu Gunma 3–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Shonan Bellmare arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Shonan Bellmare and 0.8 for Tochigi SC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Shonan Bellmare to win at 1.62 – 67% on our numbers against 62% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Shonan Bellmare 2–0 Tochigi SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shonan Bellmare67%fair 1.50 · @1.62
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @3.55
Tochigi SC14%fair 6.97 · @5.00
2.95Expected goals
2.10Shonan Bellmare xG
0.85Tochigi SC xG
55%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Shonan Bellmare 2.1 – 0.8 Tochigi SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Shonan Bellmare to win✗
67%
1.50
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Shonan Bellmare or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.30
Half-time result
Shonan Bellmare ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Shonan Bellmare / FT Shonan Bellmare✗
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.65
–
Form
Shonan Bellmare – last 6
WWWWWW
28 Mar
@ Yokohama FC
3–1
W
20 Mar
@ Thespakusatsu Gunma
2–0
W
14 Mar
vs Montedio Yamagata
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Tochigi City
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Vanraure Hachinohe
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Sagamihara
4–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tochigi SC – last 6
WWLLWL
28 Mar
@ Thespakusatsu Gunma
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs Tochigi City
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Blaublitz Akita
0–2
L
8 Mar
@ Sagamihara
0–4
L
1 Mar
vs Yokohama FC
4–0
W
22 Feb
vs Vegalta Sendai
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shonan Bellmare and Tochigi SC.
What is the prediction for Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi SC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi SC?
On our numbers Shonan Bellmare have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tochigi SC 14%.
How many goals will there be in Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi SC?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi SC?
Our predicted score is Shonan Bellmare 2–0 Tochigi SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi SC?
Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi SC (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Lemon Gas Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Thespakusatsu Gunma2
Sagamihara0
Fukushima United2
FC Gifu0
Parceiro Nagano2
Kanazawa0