Value bet: Surkhon to win @ 3.25 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBuxoro to win ✗40% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.99
Buxoro vs Surkhon preview and prediction
The match
Buxoro host Surkhon in the Super League on Friday 23 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Buxoro FA Stadioni. Buxoro are 7th with 42 points from 27 games (in the top half), while Surkhon sit 10th on 31 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Buxoro's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Dinamo Samarqand 2–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Surkhon's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Xorazm 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Buxoro and 1.2 for Surkhon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Buxoro 40%, draw 24%, Surkhon 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Surkhon to win at 3.25 – 36% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.76, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Buxoro 1–1 Surkhon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Buxoro40%fair 2.51 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.00
Surkhon36%fair 2.78 · @3.25
2.42Expected goals
1.25Buxoro xG
1.17Surkhon xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Buxoro 1.3 – 1.2 Surkhon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Buxoro to win✗
40%
2.51
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Buxoro / FT Buxoro✗
22%
4.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.99
–
Form
Buxoro – last 6
WWLLLD
17 Oct
@ Dinamo Samarqand
2–1
W
9 Oct
vs Andijan
3–2
W
19 Sep
@ Bunyodkor
1–2
L
11 Sep
vs Navbahor
1–4
L
5 Sep
@ Qizilqum
2–3
L
24 Aug
@ Kokand-1912
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Surkhon – last 6
DDWLWL
16 Oct
vs Xorazm
0–0
D
10 Oct
@ Qizilqum
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Kokand-1912
1–0
W
9 Sep
@ Neftchi
1–2
L
4 Sep
@ Bunyodkor
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs PFK Guliston
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Buxoro and Surkhon.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Buxoro vs Surkhon?
On our numbers Buxoro have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Surkhon 36%.
How many goals will there be in Buxoro vs Surkhon?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Buxoro vs Surkhon?
Our predicted score is Buxoro 1–1 Surkhon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Buxoro vs Surkhon?
Buxoro vs Surkhon (Super League) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Buxoro FA Stadioni.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
