Super League · Uzbekistan · Pakhtakor Central StadiumPakhtakor vs Neftchi prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Pakhtakor 1.6 – 1.3 Neftchi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Pakhtakor hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 33% for Neftchi.
Pakhtakor have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Neftchi have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.6 for Pakhtakor, 1.3 for Neftchi). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%).
In their last 3 meetings, Pakhtakor have won 1, Neftchi have won 2 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.62.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Pakhtakor to win ✗ | 45% | 2.20 | 2.15 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 40% | 2.51 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Pakhtakor / FT Pakhtakor ✗ | 27% | 3.77 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.95 | – |
Form
Pakhtakor – last 6
| 17 Oct | @ Navbahor | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Oct | vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs Bunyodkor | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Mash'al | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sep | @ Olmaliq | 3–1 | W |
Neftchi – last 6
| 20 Oct | vs Lokomotiv | 2–4 | L |
| 16 Oct | @ Kokand-1912 | 4–2 | W |
| 12 Oct | @ Al-Nassr | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Xorazm | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Lokomotiv | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 29 Aug 2026 | Neftchi v Pakhtakor | 1–0 |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Neftchi v Pakhtakor | 0–1 |
| 15 Mar 2026 | Neftchi v Pakhtakor | 1–0 |
Super League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Neftchi | 26 | +38 | 61 |
| 2 |  Pakhtakor | 27 | +22 | 59 |
| 3 |  Navbahor | 27 | +21 | 55 |
| 4 |  Nasaf | 27 | +15 | 45 |
| 5 |  Olmaliq | 27 | +4 | 45 |
| 6 |  Lokomotiv | 27 | +10 | 43 |
| 7 |  Buxoro | 27 | +4 | 42 |
| 8 |  Dinamo Samarqand | 27 | +2 | 37 |
| 9 |  Qizilqum | 27 | -7 | 35 |
| 10 |  Surkhon | 27 | -9 | 31 |
| 11 |  Andijan | 27 | -6 | 31 |
| 12 |  Sogdiana | 27 | -9 | 30 |
| 13 |  Xorazm | 27 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 |  Bunyodkor | 26 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 |  Kokand-1912 | 27 | -13 | 24 |
| 16 |  Mash'al | 27 | -41 | 5 |
More Super League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
On our numbers Pakhtakor have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Neftchi 33%.
How many goals will there be in Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
Pakhtakor vs Neftchi (Super League) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pakhtakor Central Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.