Super League · Uzbekistan · Istiqlol StadiumNeftchi vs Surkhon prediction & analysis
Neftchi to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Neftchi 1.9 – 0.8 Surkhon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Neftchi are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 16% for Surkhon.
Neftchi have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. Surkhon have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 0.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. Neftchi come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 for Neftchi, 0.8 for Surkhon). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Neftchi have won 1, Surkhon have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Neftchi to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.53.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Neftchi to win ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.25 |
| Double chance | Neftchi or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.38 | – |
| Half-time result | Neftchi ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Neftchi / FT Neftchi ✓ | 41% | 2.47 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.51 | – |
Form
Neftchi – last 6
| 4 Sep | @ Nasaf | 2–6 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Pakhtakor | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | vs Sogdiana | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Aug | @ Buxoro | 1–4 | L |
| 13 Aug | @ Andijan | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Qizilqum | 5–0 | W |
Surkhon – last 6
| 4 Sep | @ Bunyodkor | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs PFK Guliston | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Aug | vs Olmaliq | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Aug | @ Pakhtakor | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Aug | vs Sogdiana | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Aug | vs Navbahor | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 5 Mar 2026 | Surkhon v Neftchi | 0–3 |
Super League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Neftchi | 26 | +38 | 61 |
| 2 |  Pakhtakor | 27 | +22 | 59 |
| 3 |  Navbahor | 27 | +21 | 55 |
| 4 |  Nasaf | 27 | +15 | 45 |
| 5 |  Olmaliq | 27 | +4 | 45 |
| 6 |  Lokomotiv | 27 | +10 | 43 |
| 7 |  Buxoro | 27 | +4 | 42 |
| 8 |  Dinamo Samarqand | 27 | +2 | 37 |
| 9 |  Qizilqum | 27 | -7 | 35 |
| 10 |  Surkhon | 27 | -9 | 31 |
| 11 |  Andijan | 27 | -6 | 31 |
| 12 |  Sogdiana | 27 | -9 | 30 |
| 13 |  Xorazm | 27 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 |  Bunyodkor | 26 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 |  Kokand-1912 | 27 | -13 | 24 |
| 16 |  Mash'al | 27 | -41 | 5 |
More Super League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Neftchi vs Surkhon?
Our pick is Neftchi to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Neftchi vs Surkhon?
On our numbers Neftchi have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Surkhon 16%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi vs Surkhon?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Neftchi vs Surkhon?
Neftchi vs Surkhon (Super League) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Istiqlol Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.