Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNeftchi to win ✓64% · @1.50
Double chanceNeftchi or draw ✓88% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.19
Sogdiana vs Neftchi preview and prediction
The match
Sogdiana host Neftchi in the Super League on Tuesday 21 July, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Sogdiana Sport Complex. Sogdiana are 12th with 30 points from 27 games (in the bottom half), while Neftchi sit 1st on 61 points (top of the table). A gap of 31 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sogdiana's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Xorazm 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Neftchi's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Buxoro 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.0 for Sogdiana and 2.2 for Neftchi. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sogdiana 12%, draw 24%, Neftchi 64%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Neftchi to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Sogdiana 0–2 Neftchi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sogdiana12%fair 8.29 · @5.80
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.60
Neftchi64%fair 1.57 · @1.50
3.21Expected goals
0.96Sogdiana xG
2.25Neftchi xG
55%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
1–210%
0–19%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Sogdiana 1.0 – 2.2 Neftchi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi to win✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Double chance
Neftchi or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Neftchi ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi / FT Neftchi✓
44%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.19
–
Form
Sogdiana – last 6
WWDLWL
16 Jul
vs Xorazm
2–0
W
28 Apr
vs Surkhon
5–2
W
23 Apr
@ Navbahor
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Bunyodkor
2–3
L
13 Apr
@ Qizilqum
3–1
W
8 Apr
@ Dinamo Samarqand
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Neftchi – last 6
WLDWWW
16 Jul
vs Buxoro
2–1
W
8 Jul
@ Zenit
1–4
L
3 May
@ Olmaliq
0–0
D
29 Apr
vs Kokand-1912
4–0
W
24 Apr
@ Xorazm
2–0
W
14 Apr
@ Bunyodkor
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sogdiana and Neftchi.
Our pick is Neftchi to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Sogdiana vs Neftchi?
On our numbers Sogdiana have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Neftchi 64%.
How many goals will there be in Sogdiana vs Neftchi?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sogdiana vs Neftchi?
Our predicted score is Sogdiana 0–2 Neftchi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Sogdiana vs Neftchi?
Sogdiana vs Neftchi (Super League) kicks off on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Sogdiana Sport Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
