Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Sogdiana to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSogdiana to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chanceSogdiana or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.57
Sogdiana vs Surkhon preview and prediction
The match
The Super League sees Sogdiana take on Surkhon on Tuesday 28 April, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Sogdiana Sport Complex. Sogdiana are 12th with 30 points from 27 games (in the bottom half), while Surkhon sit 10th on 31 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sogdiana's last 5: DLWLD Most recently they drew with Navbahor 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Surkhon's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Mash'al 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Sogdiana and 1.0 for Surkhon. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sogdiana 62%, draw 22%, Surkhon 16%.
Safer route: Sogdiana or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Sogdiana to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sogdiana or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sogdiana 2–0 Surkhon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sogdiana62%fair 1.61 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.00
Surkhon16%fair 6.20 · @3.60
3.00Expected goals
2.05Sogdiana xG
0.95Surkhon xG
54%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Sogdiana 2.0 – 1.0 Surkhon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sogdiana to win✓
62%
1.61
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Sogdiana or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Sogdiana ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sogdiana / FT Sogdiana✓
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.57
–
Form
Sogdiana – last 6
DLWLDL
23 Apr
@ Navbahor
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Bunyodkor
2–3
L
13 Apr
@ Qizilqum
3–1
W
8 Apr
@ Dinamo Samarqand
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Kokand-1912
2–2
D
20 Mar
vs Pakhtakor
2–4
L
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Surkhon – last 6
WLLDWD
22 Apr
vs Mash'al
2–1
W
17 Apr
vs Qizilqum
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Navbahor
0–2
L
8 Apr
@ Olmaliq
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Nasaf
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Bunyodkor
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sogdiana and Surkhon.
Our pick is Sogdiana or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sogdiana vs Surkhon?
On our numbers Sogdiana have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Surkhon 16%.
How many goals will there be in Sogdiana vs Surkhon?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sogdiana vs Surkhon?
Our predicted score is Sogdiana 2–0 Surkhon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Sogdiana vs Surkhon?
Sogdiana vs Surkhon (Super League) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Sogdiana Sport Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
