Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPakhtakor to win ✗64% · @1.62
Double chancePakhtakor or draw ✓86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.32
Pakhtakor vs Nasaf preview and prediction
The match
Pakhtakor host Nasaf in the Super League on Tuesday 28 April, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Pakhtakor Central Stadium. Pakhtakor are 2nd with 59 points from 27 games (in the top four), while Nasaf sit 4th on 45 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Pakhtakor's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Buxoro 1–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Nasaf's last 5: LDDWL Most recently they lost to Lokomotiv 2–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Pakhtakor arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Pakhtakor and 0.8 for Nasaf. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Pakhtakor 64%, draw 22%, Nasaf 14%.
Safer route: Pakhtakor or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pakhtakor to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Pakhtakor 1–0 Nasaf. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pakhtakor64%fair 1.57 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.30
Nasaf14%fair 6.92 · @4.80
2.61Expected goals
1.86Pakhtakor xG
0.75Nasaf xG
55%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Pakhtakor 1.9 – 0.8 Nasaf expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pakhtakor to win✗
64%
1.57
1.62
Double chance
Pakhtakor or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Pakhtakor ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pakhtakor / FT Pakhtakor✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.32
–
Form
Pakhtakor – last 6
WWWWWL
22 Apr
@ Buxoro
1–0
W
13 Apr
vs Mash'al
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Neftchi
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Olmaliq
3–1
W
20 Mar
@ Sogdiana
4–2
W
15 Mar
@ Neftchi
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nasaf – last 6
LDDWLD
23 Apr
vs Lokomotiv
2–3
L
13 Apr
vs Buxoro
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Kokand-1912
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Andijan
1–0
W
20 Mar
vs Surkhon
0–1
L
12 Mar
@ Dinamo Samarqand
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pakhtakor and Nasaf.
Our pick is Pakhtakor to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Pakhtakor vs Nasaf?
On our numbers Pakhtakor have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nasaf 14%.
How many goals will there be in Pakhtakor vs Nasaf?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pakhtakor vs Nasaf?
Our predicted score is Pakhtakor 1–0 Nasaf, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Pakhtakor vs Nasaf?
Pakhtakor vs Nasaf (Super League) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Pakhtakor Central Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
