Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: FK Liepaja to win @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✓65% · @1.70
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.92
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava preview and prediction
The match
FS Jelgava travel to Daugavas stadions in the Virsliga on Sunday 18 October (14:00 WAT) to face FK Liepaja. FK Liepaja are 5th with 51 points from 36 games (in the top half), while FS Jelgava sit 7th on 35 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FK Liepaja's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Auda 2–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
FS Jelgava's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 2–4 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 July 2026, finished FS Jelgava 0–2 FK Liepaja. Across their last 3 meetings FK Liepaja have won 2, FS Jelgava 0, with 1 draw and 2.3 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for FK Liepaja and 0.8 for FS Jelgava. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FK Liepaja 65%, draw 21%, FS Jelgava 14%.
Safer route: FK Liepaja or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.
Value angle: FK Liepaja to win at 1.70 – 65% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FK Liepaja or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FK Liepaja 1–0 FS Jelgava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FK Liepaja65%fair 1.53 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.50
FS Jelgava14%fair 7.29 · @4.20
2.75Expected goals
1.97FK Liepaja xG
0.78FS Jelgava xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: FK Liepaja 2.0 – 0.8 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
Our pick is FK Liepaja or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers FK Liepaja have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FS Jelgava 14%.
How many goals will there be in FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is FK Liepaja 1–0 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Daugavas stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
