Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
BFC Daugavpils or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✓65% · @1.73
Double chanceBFC Daugavpils or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.56
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils preview and prediction
The match
BFC Daugavpils travel to face Ogre United in the Virsliga on Sunday 11 October (12:00 WAT). Ogre United are 10th with 19 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while BFC Daugavpils sit 4th on 52 points (in the top four). A gap of 33 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ogre United's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Super Nova 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: DLDDL Most recently they drew with FK Liepaja 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 August 2026, finished BFC Daugavpils 3–1 Ogre United. Across their last 4 meetings Ogre United have won 0, BFC Daugavpils 4, with 0 draws and 3.8 goals per game; both teams scored in 3 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Ogre United and 2.0 for BFC Daugavpils. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ogre United 16%, draw 19%, BFC Daugavpils 65%.
Safer route: BFC Daugavpils or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.44.
Value angle: BFC Daugavpils to win at 1.73 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was BFC Daugavpils or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ogre United 0–1 BFC Daugavpils. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ogre United16%fair 6.42 · @3.90
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.60
BFC Daugavpils65%fair 1.54 · @1.73
2.84Expected goals
0.84Ogre United xG
2.00BFC Daugavpils xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Ogre United 0.8 – 2.0 BFC Daugavpils expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our pick is BFC Daugavpils or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
On our numbers Ogre United have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 19% and BFC Daugavpils 65%.
How many goals will there be in Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our predicted score is Ogre United 0–1 BFC Daugavpils, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
