Value bet: Super Nova to win @ 2.38 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSuper Nova to win ✓45% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.91
Super Nova vs Grobiņa preview and prediction
The match
Super Nova host Grobiņa in the Virsliga on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Jana Skredela stadions. Super Nova are 6th with 40 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Grobiņa sit 8th on 29 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Super Nova's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Ogre United 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Grobiņa's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Tukums 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 July 2026, finished Super Nova 2–0 Grobiņa. Across their last 3 meetings Super Nova have won 3, Grobiņa 0, with 0 draws and 1.7 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Super Nova and 1.0 for Grobiņa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Super Nova 45%, draw 24%, Grobiņa 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Super Nova to win at 2.38 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Super Nova 1–1 Grobiņa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Super Nova45%fair 2.23 · @2.38
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @2.90
Grobiņa32%fair 3.16 · @2.90
2.33Expected goals
1.30Super Nova xG
1.03Grobiņa xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Super Nova 1.3 – 1.0 Grobiņa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Super Nova vs Grobiņa?
On our numbers Super Nova have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Grobiņa 32%.
How many goals will there be in Super Nova vs Grobiņa?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Super Nova vs Grobiņa?
Our predicted score is Super Nova 1–1 Grobiņa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Super Nova vs Grobiņa?
Super Nova vs Grobiņa (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Jana Skredela stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
