Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✓67% · @1.20
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.70
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.60
Tukums vs Riga preview and prediction
The match
Tukums host Riga in the Virsliga on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT). Tukums are 9th with 25 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Riga sit 2nd on 83 points (in the top four). A gap of 58 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tukums's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Grobiņa 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Riga's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Aris 2–1 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 July 2026, finished Riga 3–1 Tukums. Across their last 3 meetings Tukums have won 0, Riga 2, with 1 draw and 4.7 goals per game; both teams scored in 3 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.1 for Tukums and 2.5 for Riga. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 69% and both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums 13%, draw 20%, Riga 67%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tukums 1–2 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums13%fair 7.64 · @11.00
Draw20%fair 4.98 · @6.00
Riga67%fair 1.50 · @1.20
3.56Expected goals
1.07Tukums xG
2.49Riga xG
62%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
0–29%
1–38%
1–18%
0–37%
0–17%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.1 – 2.5 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Tukums vs Riga?
On our numbers Tukums have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Riga 67%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Riga?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Riga?
Tukums vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
