Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Tukums to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTukums to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceTukums or draw ✓80% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.63
Tukums vs Ogre United preview and prediction
The match
Ogre United travel to face Tukums in the Virsliga on Saturday 5 September (13:00 WAT). Tukums are 9th with 25 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Ogre United sit 10th on 19 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Tukums's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to FS Jelgava 1–4 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Ogre United's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 3.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 June 2026, finished Ogre United 3–2 Tukums. Across their last 3 meetings Tukums have won 1, Ogre United 1, with 1 draw and 4.7 goals per game; both teams scored in 3 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.2 for Tukums and 1.3 for Ogre United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums 56%, draw 24%, Ogre United 20%.
Safer route: Tukums or draw (80%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Tukums to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tukums or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tukums 2–1 Ogre United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums56%fair 1.79 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.40
Ogre United20%fair 5.02 · @3.20
3.56Expected goals
2.23Tukums xG
1.33Ogre United xG
65%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
2–07%
3–17%
1–06%
2–26%
From our goals model: Tukums 2.2 – 1.3 Ogre United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Tukums or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Tukums vs Ogre United?
On our numbers Tukums have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ogre United 20%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Ogre United?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Ogre United?
Our predicted score is Tukums 2–1 Ogre United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Ogre United?
Tukums vs Ogre United (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
