Value bet: FS Jelgava to win @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFS Jelgava to win ✓59% · @1.80
Double chanceFS Jelgava or draw ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.63
Ogre United vs FS Jelgava preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees Ogre United take on FS Jelgava on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Ogre United are 10th with 19 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while FS Jelgava sit 7th on 35 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ogre United's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to BFC Daugavpils 1–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.7 conceded.
FS Jelgava's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Auda 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Ogre United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 June 2026, finished FS Jelgava 0–2 Ogre United. Across their last 2 meetings Ogre United have won 1, FS Jelgava 1, with 0 draws and 1.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.0 for Ogre United and 2.0 for FS Jelgava. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ogre United 18%, draw 23%, FS Jelgava 59%.
Safer route: FS Jelgava or draw (82%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Value angle: FS Jelgava to win at 1.80 – 59% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Ogre United 1–1 FS Jelgava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ogre United18%fair 5.67 · @3.85
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.50
FS Jelgava59%fair 1.68 · @1.80
2.94Expected goals
0.98Ogre United xG
1.96FS Jelgava xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–110%
1–110%
0–210%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Ogre United 1.0 – 2.0 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Ogre United vs FS Jelgava?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ogre United vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers Ogre United have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FS Jelgava 59%.
How many goals will there be in Ogre United vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ogre United vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is Ogre United 1–1 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Ogre United vs FS Jelgava?
Ogre United vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
