Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: FK Liepaja to win @ 3.00 – our chance 42% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✗42% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · fair 1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.57
Tukums vs FK Liepaja preview and prediction
The match
Tukums host FK Liepaja in the Virsliga on Sunday 2 August, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Daugavas stadions. Tukums are 9th with 25 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while FK Liepaja sit 5th on 51 points (in the top half). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tukums's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
FK Liepaja's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Austria Vienna 1–3 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
FK Liepaja arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 May 2026, finished FK Liepaja 3–0 Tukums. Across their last 2 meetings Tukums have won 0, FK Liepaja 1, with 1 draw and 3.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.5 for Tukums and 1.6 for FK Liepaja. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 65%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums 37%, draw 21%, FK Liepaja 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.45.
Value angle: FK Liepaja to win at 3.00 – 42% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 65% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Tukums 1–1 FK Liepaja. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums37%fair 2.70 · @2.05
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.65
FK Liepaja42%fair 2.41 · @3.00
3.15Expected goals
1.52Tukums xG
1.63FK Liepaja xG
65%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–27%
1–07%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.5 – 1.6 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
On our numbers Tukums have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FK Liepaja 42%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
Tukums vs FK Liepaja (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Daugavas stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
