Value bet: Super Nova to win @ 2.55 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSuper Nova to win ✓42% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.36
Super Nova vs Grobiņa preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees Super Nova take on Grobiņa on Monday 20 July, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Jana Skredela stadions. Super Nova are 6th with 40 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Grobiņa sit 8th on 29 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Super Nova's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Tukums 2–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Grobiņa's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Mārupe 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Grobiņa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 May 2026, finished Grobiņa 0–2 Super Nova. Across their last 2 meetings Super Nova have won 2, Grobiņa 0, with 0 draws and 1.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Super Nova and 1.0 for Grobiņa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Super Nova 42%, draw 25%, Grobiņa 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Super Nova to win at 2.55 – 42% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Super Nova 1–1 Grobiņa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Super Nova42%fair 2.39 · @2.55
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.20
Grobiņa33%fair 3.04 · @2.55
2.40Expected goals
1.38Super Nova xG
1.02Grobiņa xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–09%
From our goals model: Super Nova 1.4 – 1.0 Grobiņa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Super Nova vs Grobiņa?
On our numbers Super Nova have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Grobiņa 33%.
How many goals will there be in Super Nova vs Grobiņa?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Super Nova vs Grobiņa?
Our predicted score is Super Nova 1–1 Grobiņa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Super Nova vs Grobiņa?
Super Nova vs Grobiņa (Virsliga) kicks off on Monday 20 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Jana Skredela stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
