Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Tukums to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTukums to win ✗65% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.10
Ogre United vs Tukums preview and prediction
The match
Ogre United host Tukums in the Virsliga on Friday 26 June, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Ogre United are 10th with 19 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Tukums sit 9th on 25 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Ogre United's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 0–6 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Tukums's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to FS Jelgava 1–4 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 7 May 2026, finished Tukums 6–1 Ogre United. Across their last 2 meetings Ogre United have won 0, Tukums 1, with 1 draw and 4.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.1 for Ogre United and 2.1 for Tukums. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ogre United 22%, draw 13%, Tukums 65%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Tukums to win at 1.85 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ogre United 1–2 Tukums. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ogre United22%fair 4.63 · @3.50
Draw13%fair 7.47 · @3.55
Tukums65%fair 1.54 · @1.85
3.18Expected goals
1.06Ogre United xG
2.12Tukums xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–19%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: Ogre United 1.1 – 2.1 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ogre United vs Tukums?
On our numbers Ogre United have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Tukums 65%.
How many goals will there be in Ogre United vs Tukums?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ogre United vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is Ogre United 1–2 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Ogre United vs Tukums?
Ogre United vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Friday 26 June 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
