Value bet: Tukums to win @ 2.80 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFS Jelgava to win ✓39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.89
FS Jelgava vs Tukums preview and prediction
The match
Tukums travel to Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs in the Virsliga on Sunday 21 June (14:00 WAT) to face FS Jelgava. FS Jelgava are 7th with 35 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Tukums sit 9th on 25 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
FS Jelgava's last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Ogre United 0–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Tukums's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Auda 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 May 2026, finished Tukums 5–0 FS Jelgava. Across their last 2 meetings FS Jelgava have won 1, Tukums 1, with 0 draws and 4.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for FS Jelgava and 1.5 for Tukums. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations.
Value angle: Tukums to win at 2.80 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: FS Jelgava 1–1 Tukums. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FS Jelgava39%fair 2.57 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.45
Tukums39%fair 2.59 · @2.80
2.92Expected goals
1.46FS Jelgava xG
1.46Tukums xG
62%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: FS Jelgava 1.5 – 1.5 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win FS Jelgava vs Tukums?
On our numbers FS Jelgava have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tukums 39%.
How many goals will there be in FS Jelgava vs Tukums?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FS Jelgava vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is FS Jelgava 1–1 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is FS Jelgava vs Tukums?
FS Jelgava vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
