Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRīgas FS to win ✓75% · @1.18
Double chanceRīgas FS or draw ✓94% · @1.02
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–3 ✗11% · fair 8.86
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS preview and prediction
The match
Rīgas FS travel to LNK Sporta Parks in the Virsliga on Friday 29 May (18:00 WAT) to face Super Nova. Super Nova are 6th with 40 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Rīgas FS sit 1st on 89 points (top of the table). A gap of 49 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Super Nova's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Riga 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Rīgas FS's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Tukums 3–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rīgas FS arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.6 for Super Nova and 2.4 for Rīgas FS. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 49% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Super Nova 6%, draw 19%, Rīgas FS 75%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Super Nova 0–2 Rīgas FS. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Super Nova6%fair 16.01 · @11.00
Draw19%fair 5.39 · @6.25
Rīgas FS75%fair 1.33 · @1.18
2.97Expected goals
0.61Super Nova xG
2.37Rīgas FS xG
49%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–214%
0–112%
0–311%
1–29%
1–17%
1–37%
From our goals model: Super Nova 0.6 – 2.4 Rīgas FS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rīgas FS to win✓
75%
1.33
1.18
Double chance
Rīgas FS or draw✓
94%
1.07
1.02
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.57
Half-time result
Rīgas FS ahead at half-time✗
55%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rīgas FS / FT Rīgas FS✗
52%
1.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–3✗
11%
8.86
–
Form
Super Nova – last 6
LWDLLW
24 May
@ Riga
0–3
L
20 May
@ Grobiņa
2–0
W
11 May
vs Tukums
1–1
D
6 May
@ FS Jelgava
0–1
L
1 May
vs Auda
1–2
L
27 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Rīgas FS – last 6
WWWWWD
25 May
vs Tukums
3–1
W
21 May
vs FS Jelgava
4–0
W
17 May
@ Auda
3–0
W
13 May
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–0
W
8 May
vs FK Liepaja
5–0
W
28 Apr
vs Riga
3–3
D
3.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Super Nova and Rīgas FS.
What is the prediction for Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
On our numbers Super Nova have a 6% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Rīgas FS 75%.
How many goals will there be in Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
Our predicted score is Super Nova 0–2 Rīgas FS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS (Virsliga) kicks off on Friday 29 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at LNK Sporta Parks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
