Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: FK Liepaja to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓80% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.84
FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees FS Jelgava take on FK Liepaja on Tuesday 26 May, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs. FS Jelgava are 7th with 35 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while FK Liepaja sit 5th on 51 points (in the top half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FS Jelgava's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 0–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FK Liepaja's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Auda 1–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 February 2026, finished FK Liepaja 2–1 FS Jelgava.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for FS Jelgava and 1.9 for FK Liepaja. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FS Jelgava 20%, draw 20%, FK Liepaja 61%.
Safer route: FK Liepaja or draw (80%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.57.
Value angle: FK Liepaja to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FK Liepaja or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.24, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FS Jelgava 0–1 FK Liepaja. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FS Jelgava20%fair 5.11 · @3.35
Draw20%fair 5.10 · @3.55
FK Liepaja61%fair 1.64 · @1.91
2.81Expected goals
0.93FS Jelgava xG
1.88FK Liepaja xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: FS Jelgava 0.9 – 1.9 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja?
Our pick is FK Liepaja or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja?
On our numbers FS Jelgava have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FK Liepaja 61%.
How many goals will there be in FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja?
Our predicted score is FS Jelgava 0–1 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja?
FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja (Virsliga) kicks off on Tuesday 26 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
