Value bet: Super Nova to win @ 2.75 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSuper Nova to win ✓41% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.03
Grobiņa vs Super Nova preview and prediction
The match
Grobiņa host Super Nova in the Virsliga on Wednesday 20 May, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT). Grobiņa are 8th with 29 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Super Nova sit 6th on 40 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Grobiņa's last 5: DLDDL Most recently they drew with FS Jelgava 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Super Nova's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Tukums 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 April 2026, finished Grobiņa 0–1 Super Nova.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Grobiņa and 1.3 for Super Nova. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Grobiņa 34%, draw 25%, Super Nova 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Super Nova to win at 2.75 – 41% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.21. Predicted score: Grobiņa 1–1 Super Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Grobiņa34%fair 2.93 · @2.43
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Super Nova41%fair 2.43 · @2.75
2.41Expected goals
1.13Grobiņa xG
1.28Super Nova xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Grobiņa 1.1 – 1.3 Super Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Grobiņa vs Super Nova?
On our numbers Grobiņa have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Super Nova 41%.
How many goals will there be in Grobiņa vs Super Nova?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grobiņa vs Super Nova?
Our predicted score is Grobiņa 1–1 Super Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Grobiņa vs Super Nova?
Grobiņa vs Super Nova (Virsliga) kicks off on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
