Tukums host Riga in the Virsliga on Wednesday 20 May, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Tukums are 9th with 25 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Riga sit 2nd on 83 points (in the top four). A gap of 58 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tukums's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Super Nova 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Riga's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Auda 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 April 2026, finished Riga 3–3 Tukums.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.0 for Tukums and 2.7 for Riga. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 67% and both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums 10%, draw 16%, Riga 74%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.82.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Riga to win – a 74% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Tukums 0–2 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums10%fair 9.59 · @9.50
Draw16%fair 6.39 · @5.40
Riga74%fair 1.35 · @1.22
3.68Expected goals
0.96Tukums xG
2.72Riga xG
57%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–29%
1–29%
0–38%
1–38%
0–17%
1–17%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.0 – 2.7 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Riga to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tukums vs Riga?
On our numbers Tukums have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Riga 74%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Riga?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Tukums 0–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Riga?
Tukums vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
