The Virsliga sees Super Nova take on Tukums on Monday 11 May, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Slokas Stadions. Super Nova are 6th with 40 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Tukums sit 9th on 25 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Super Nova's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to FS Jelgava 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Tukums's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Ogre United 6–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 March 2026, finished Tukums 1–2 Super Nova.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.3 for Super Nova and 1.6 for Tukums. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Super Nova 34%, draw 21%, Tukums 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Super Nova 1–1 Tukums. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Super Nova34%fair 2.93 · @2.80
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.40
Tukums45%fair 2.21 · @2.25
2.90Expected goals
1.32Super Nova xG
1.57Tukums xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Super Nova 1.3 – 1.6 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Super Nova vs Tukums?
On our numbers Super Nova have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tukums 45%.
How many goals will there be in Super Nova vs Tukums?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Super Nova vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is Super Nova 1–1 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Super Nova vs Tukums?
Super Nova vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Slokas Stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
