Grobiņa host FS Jelgava in the Virsliga on Monday 11 May, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Grobiņa are 8th with 29 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while FS Jelgava sit 7th on 35 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Grobiņa's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Auda 0–7 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
FS Jelgava's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Super Nova 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
FS Jelgava arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Grobiņa and 1.3 for FS Jelgava. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 58%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Grobiņa 1–1 FS Jelgava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Grobiņa34%fair 2.90 · @2.62
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.20
FS Jelgava42%fair 2.40 · @2.45
2.51Expected goals
1.18Grobiņa xG
1.33FS Jelgava xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Grobiņa 1.2 – 1.3 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FS Jelgava to win✗
42%
2.40
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FS Jelgava / FT FS Jelgava✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.27
–
Form
Grobiņa – last 6
LDDLLD
7 May
@ Auda
0–7
L
2 May
vs BFC Daugavpils
1–1
D
28 Apr
@ FK Liepaja
1–1
D
22 Apr
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
18 Apr
vs Riga
0–3
L
13 Apr
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
FS Jelgava – last 6
WLWLLL
6 May
vs Super Nova
1–0
W
1 May
@ Tukums
0–5
L
27 Apr
@ Ogre United
1–0
W
21 Apr
vs Auda
2–3
L
16 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
0–1
L
8 Apr
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Grobiņa and FS Jelgava.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Grobiņa vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers Grobiņa have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FS Jelgava 42%.
How many goals will there be in Grobiņa vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grobiņa vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is Grobiņa 1–1 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Grobiņa vs FS Jelgava?
Grobiņa vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
