BFC Daugavpils host Riga in the Virsliga on Friday 8 May, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Stadions Celtnieks. BFC Daugavpils are 4th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Riga sit 2nd on 83 points (in the top four). A gap of 31 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Grobiņa 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Riga's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat FK Liepaja 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 0.9 for BFC Daugavpils and 2.5 for Riga. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: BFC Daugavpils 11%, draw 17%, Riga 71%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Riga to win – a 71% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: BFC Daugavpils 0–2 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
BFC Daugavpils11%fair 8.78 · @8.80
Draw17%fair 5.72 · @5.00
Riga71%fair 1.41 · @1.28
3.43Expected goals
0.93BFC Daugavpils xG
2.50Riga xG
56%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
1–29%
0–38%
0–18%
1–38%
1–18%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 0.9 – 2.5 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✓
71%
1.41
1.28
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
1.62
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✓
48%
2.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
10%
9.84
–
Form
BFC Daugavpils – last 6
DLDWWW
2 May
@ Grobiņa
1–1
D
27 Apr
vs Super Nova
0–1
L
21 Apr
@ Tukums
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs FS Jelgava
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Auda
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Ogre United
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Riga – last 6
WDWWWD
3 May
vs FK Liepaja
1–0
W
28 Apr
@ Rīgas FS
3–3
D
22 Apr
vs Ogre United
4–0
W
18 Apr
@ Grobiņa
3–0
W
14 Apr
@ Super Nova
4–1
W
9 Apr
vs Tukums
3–3
D
3.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BFC Daugavpils and Riga.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
Our pick is Riga to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Riga 71%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 0–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
BFC Daugavpils vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
