Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.70 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✗40% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.62
Rīgas FS vs Riga preview and prediction
The match
Rīgas FS host Riga in the Virsliga on Tuesday 28 April, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at LNK Sporta Parks - artificial grass. Rīgas FS are 1st with 89 points from 35 games (top of the table), while Riga sit 2nd on 83 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Rīgas FS's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Grobiņa 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Riga's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Ogre United 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 3.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Rīgas FS and 1.5 for Riga. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rīgas FS 37%, draw 23%, Riga 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.70 – 63% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Rīgas FS 1–1 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rīgas FS37%fair 2.72 · @2.65
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.30
Riga40%fair 2.49 · @2.38
2.99Expected goals
1.46Rīgas FS xG
1.53Riga xG
63%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Rīgas FS 1.5 – 1.5 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✗
40%
2.49
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.70 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.62
–
Form
Rīgas FS – last 6
WWWLWW
22 Apr
@ Grobiņa
1–0
W
13 Apr
@ Tukums
2–1
W
8 Apr
@ FS Jelgava
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Auda
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ FK Liepaja
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Ogre United
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Riga – last 6
WWWDWW
22 Apr
vs Ogre United
4–0
W
18 Apr
@ Grobiņa
3–0
W
14 Apr
@ Super Nova
4–1
W
9 Apr
vs Tukums
3–3
D
20 Mar
@ Auda
2–1
W
24 Feb
@ Flora Tallinn
3–0
W
3.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rīgas FS and Riga.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Rīgas FS vs Riga?
On our numbers Rīgas FS have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Riga 40%.
How many goals will there be in Rīgas FS vs Riga?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rīgas FS vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Rīgas FS 1–1 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Rīgas FS vs Riga?
Rīgas FS vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at LNK Sporta Parks - artificial grass.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
