Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✗63% · @1.48
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓83% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.22
FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees FK Liepaja take on Grobiņa on Tuesday 28 April, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Daugavas stadions. FK Liepaja are 5th with 51 points from 36 games (in the top half), while Grobiņa sit 8th on 29 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FK Liepaja's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Super Nova 2–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Grobiņa's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for FK Liepaja and 0.8 for Grobiņa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FK Liepaja 63%, draw 21%, Grobiņa 17%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FK Liepaja 1–0 Grobiņa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FK Liepaja63%fair 1.60 · @1.48
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @4.10
Grobiņa17%fair 6.03 · @5.75
2.56Expected goals
1.79FK Liepaja xG
0.77Grobiņa xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: FK Liepaja 1.8 – 0.8 Grobiņa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FK Liepaja to win✗
63%
1.60
1.48
Double chance
FK Liepaja or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.53
Half-time result
FK Liepaja ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FK Liepaja / FT FK Liepaja✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.22
–
Form
FK Liepaja – last 6
WDLLWL
23 Apr
@ Super Nova
2–1
W
17 Apr
@ Tukums
2–2
D
8 Apr
vs Auda
1–2
L
3 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
0–2
L
20 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–0
W
13 Mar
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Grobiņa – last 6
LLDLDW
22 Apr
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
18 Apr
vs Riga
0–3
L
13 Apr
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Super Nova
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Tukums
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FK Liepaja and Grobiņa.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa?
On our numbers FK Liepaja have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Grobiņa 17%.
How many goals will there be in FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa?
Our predicted score is FK Liepaja 1–0 Grobiņa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa?
FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa (Virsliga) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Daugavas stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
