Value bet: Ogre United to win @ 3.20 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFS Jelgava to win ✓41% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓10% · fair 10.12
Ogre United vs FS Jelgava preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees Ogre United take on FS Jelgava on Monday 27 April, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT). Ogre United are 10th with 19 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while FS Jelgava sit 7th on 35 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ogre United's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Riga 0–4 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
FS Jelgava's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Auda 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Ogre United and 1.4 for FS Jelgava. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ogre United 36%, draw 23%, FS Jelgava 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Ogre United to win at 3.20 – 36% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Ogre United 1–1 FS Jelgava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ogre United36%fair 2.75 · @3.20
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.30
FS Jelgava41%fair 2.46 · @2.05
2.62Expected goals
1.26Ogre United xG
1.35FS Jelgava xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Ogre United 1.3 – 1.4 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FS Jelgava to win✓
41%
2.46
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FS Jelgava / FT FS Jelgava✗
23%
4.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
10%
10.12
–
Form
Ogre United – last 6
LDDLLL
22 Apr
@ Riga
0–4
L
17 Apr
vs Auda
1–1
D
13 Apr
vs Grobiņa
1–1
D
7 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–2
L
3 Apr
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs FK Liepaja
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FS Jelgava – last 6
LLLDWL
21 Apr
vs Auda
2–3
L
16 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
0–1
L
8 Apr
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Super Nova
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Tukums
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ FK Liepaja
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ogre United and FS Jelgava.
What is the prediction for Ogre United vs FS Jelgava?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Ogre United vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers Ogre United have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FS Jelgava 41%.
How many goals will there be in Ogre United vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ogre United vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is Ogre United 1–1 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Ogre United vs FS Jelgava?
Ogre United vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
