BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
BFC Daugavpils or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceBFC Daugavpils or draw ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.56
BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova preview and prediction
The match
BFC Daugavpils host Super Nova in the Virsliga on Monday 27 April, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Stadions Celtnieks. BFC Daugavpils are 4th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Super Nova sit 6th on 40 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Tukums 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Super Nova's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to FK Liepaja 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for BFC Daugavpils and 0.9 for Super Nova. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: BFC Daugavpils 61%, draw 24%, Super Nova 15%.
Safer route: BFC Daugavpils or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.70.
Value angle: BFC Daugavpils to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was BFC Daugavpils or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Super Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
BFC Daugavpils61%fair 1.64 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.40
Super Nova15%fair 6.76 · @3.50
2.81Expected goals
1.94BFC Daugavpils xG
0.87Super Nova xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.9 – 0.9 Super Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
BFC Daugavpils to win✗
61%
1.64
1.91 ▲
Double chance
BFC Daugavpils or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.30
Half-time result
BFC Daugavpils ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT BFC Daugavpils / FT BFC Daugavpils✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.56
–
Form
BFC Daugavpils – last 6
DWWWWL
21 Apr
@ Tukums
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs FS Jelgava
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Auda
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Ogre United
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs FK Liepaja
2–0
W
7 Mar
vs Grobiņa
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Super Nova – last 6
LLWWWD
23 Apr
vs FK Liepaja
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Riga
1–4
L
9 Apr
@ Grobiņa
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Ogre United
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Tukums
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs FS Jelgava
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
Our pick is BFC Daugavpils or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Super Nova 15%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Super Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova (Virsliga) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
