Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.37 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.37Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.40 – our chance 55% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +33%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✓72% · @1.08
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓91% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.40
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · @1.09
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.85
Riga vs Ogre United preview and prediction
The match
Riga host Ogre United in the Virsliga on Wednesday 22 April, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Skonto stadions. Riga are 2nd with 83 points from 35 games (in the top four), while Ogre United sit 10th on 19 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 64 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Riga's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Grobiņa 3–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game.
Ogre United's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Auda 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.6 for Riga and 0.9 for Ogre United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Riga 72%, draw 19%, Ogre United 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.40.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.40 – 55% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.37. Predicted score: Riga 2–1 Ogre United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Riga72%fair 1.39 · @1.08
Draw19%fair 5.22 · @8.00
Ogre United9%fair 11.32 · @17.00
3.46Expected goals
2.58Riga xG
0.88Ogre United xG
55%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–19%
3–09%
1–08%
3–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Riga 2.6 – 0.9 Ogre United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✓
72%
1.39
1.08
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
2.40 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.37
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.70
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✓
50%
1.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.85
–
Form
Riga – last 6
WWDWWW
18 Apr
@ Grobiņa
3–0
W
14 Apr
@ Super Nova
4–1
W
9 Apr
vs Tukums
3–3
D
20 Mar
@ Auda
2–1
W
24 Feb
@ Flora Tallinn
3–0
W
17 Feb
vs Auda
4–1
W
3.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Ogre United – last 6
DDLLLD
17 Apr
vs Auda
1–1
D
13 Apr
vs Grobiņa
1–1
D
7 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–2
L
3 Apr
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs FK Liepaja
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs Tukums
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Riga and Ogre United.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.37.
Who will win Riga vs Ogre United?
On our numbers Riga have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ogre United 9%.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Ogre United?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs Ogre United?
Our predicted score is Riga 2–1 Ogre United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Riga vs Ogre United?
Riga vs Ogre United (Virsliga) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
