Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 2.55 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✗42% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.46
Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils preview and prediction
The match
Tukums host BFC Daugavpils in the Virsliga on Tuesday 21 April, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Tukums are 9th with 25 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while BFC Daugavpils sit 4th on 52 points (in the top four). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tukums's last 5: DLDDL Most recently they drew with FK Liepaja 2–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat FS Jelgava 1–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
BFC Daugavpils arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for Tukums and 1.6 for BFC Daugavpils. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums 36%, draw 22%, BFC Daugavpils 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.50.
Value angle: BFC Daugavpils to win at 2.55 – 42% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Tukums 1–1 BFC Daugavpils. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums36%fair 2.79 · @2.38
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.50
BFC Daugavpils42%fair 2.40 · @2.55
3.12Expected goals
1.49Tukums xG
1.63BFC Daugavpils xG
63%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
1–07%
2–27%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.5 – 1.6 BFC Daugavpils expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
BFC Daugavpils to win✗
42%
2.40
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT BFC Daugavpils / FT BFC Daugavpils✗
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.46
–
Form
Tukums – last 6
DLDDLD
17 Apr
vs FK Liepaja
2–2
D
13 Apr
vs Rīgas FS
1–2
L
9 Apr
@ Riga
3–3
D
5 Apr
vs Grobiņa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
BFC Daugavpils – last 6
WWWWLL
16 Apr
vs FS Jelgava
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Auda
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Ogre United
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs FK Liepaja
2–0
W
7 Mar
vs Grobiņa
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Suduva Marijampole
3–5
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tukums and BFC Daugavpils.
What is the prediction for Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils?
On our numbers Tukums have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 22% and BFC Daugavpils 42%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 BFC Daugavpils, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils?
Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
